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Market View

J200 112,969.00 +0.59% J203 120,887.00 +0.51% J210 140,056.00 +1.17% J211 131,703.00 -0.66% J212 26,379.00 +1.19% J213 144,326.00 +0.24%

Winning Shares (Top 5)

Code	Name	Added	Price	Latest	% Gain	% Gain/Year
SUR	SPURCORP	2023-08-08	2488	3870	+55.55%	+22.11%
ADH	ADVTECH	2023-08-14	1975	3950	+100.00%	+40.07%
CGR	CALGRO-M3	2023-08-15	356	493	+38.48%	+15.44%
CAA	CA-SALES	2023-08-25	775	1500	+93.55%	+37.94%
CPI	CAPITEC	2023-11-04	185496	457822	+146.81%	+64.64%

Opinions (Top 5)

Code	Name	Date	Action
MTA	METAIR	2026-02-11	View Metair (MTA) produces energy solutions (batteries) and components for the vehicle manufacturing business. It has operations in Africa and in various European and Middle East countries. The company's energy storage business is located in Turkey in an operation called "Mutlu". The business it is in has the prospect of growing rapidly as electric motor vehicles replace those powered by internal combustion engines. The company has announced its intention to split into its European acid battery business and its automotive components business in South Africa. In a report on the impact of the floods in Natal the company said, "Whilst the impact on Metair’s facilities was minimal and operations had promptly returned to normal, a major Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) customer of the Group advised that it suffered significant damage to its plant with production suspended for clean-up operations and assessments to be carried out." The company received a R150m insurance pay out for business interruption from the Natal floods. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2025 the company reported revenue up 53% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 65c compared with a loss of 3c in the previous period. The company said, "Total headline earnings per share (HEPS) (including discontinued operations) was 65 cents per share (H1 2024 loss: 3 cps), primarily due to losses at Mutlu in the prior period, whereas HEPS from continuing operations decreased by 8% to 71 cents per share (H1 2024: 77 cps)". In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2025 the company estimated that it made a headline loss of between 63c and 70c per share compared with a loss of 203c in the previous period. The share has been falling since February 2014. We recommend waiting for a break up through its downward trendline before investigating further. The share has yet to break up through that long-term downward trendline and has, in fact, drifted lower. On 6th December 2023 the company announced that its CEO, Sjoerd Douwenga, would resign with effect from 31st January 2024 due to ill health. On 16th September 2024 the company announced that it had sold its entire shareholding in Mutlu, its Turkish operation) for R1,95bn. The news caused the share price to jump. On 5th October 2024 the company announced that it had acquired Autozone from the business rescuers for up to R290m in cash.
TRL	TRELLIDOR	2026-02-11	View Trellidor (TRL) is a manufacturer of barrier security products, blinds and security shutters since 1976. The company is divided into the Trellidor business (security barriers) and the Taylor business (security and decorative blinds). Taylor also imports and distributes cornicing and skirting. The company has 70 franchise outlets in South Africa and a very strong brand name. The company has representation in 24 countries, 17 of which are in Africa. Obviously, this company is linked to the construction and home improvements industry and so it is at the mercy of the state of the economy. It is well managed and has a strong balance sheet. It should benefit directly from any improvement in the economy and has benefited from the work-from-home shift in the economy as well as the low level of interest rates. The company has been engaging in share buy-backs which support the current share price. In its results for the year to 30th June 2025 the company reported revenue down 8,9% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 31,5c down from 36,1c in the previous year. The company said, "Earnings per share, which include the impairment of goodwill and intangibles of R69.4 million, resulting from the disposal of Taylor and NMC, is a loss per share of 41.7 cents (2024: earnings per share 36.1 cents). Cash generated from operations for the year increased by 30.1% to R66.5 million (2024: R51.1 million) driven by strong working capital management. Net debt was reduced by R44.4 million, or 38.4%, to R71.3 million, contributing to a 30.3% reduction in finance costs to R9.9m (2024: R14.2m) excluding lease liabilities related costs". In a trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2025 the company estimated that HEPS would fall by between 95,97% and 99,97% - meaning that they will have operated pretty much at break-even for the year. The decline was due to lower project-related income in the UK and subdued consumer demand in South Africa. Volumes traded in Trellidor shares have dropped off in recent months and are now at an average of R28 000 worth of shares are changing hands every day. This is not a good sign. At the same time the share price has been drifting sideways and downwards. Obviously, security still remains a priority for South Africans.
DRD	DRDGOLD	2026-02-10	View DRDGOLD (DRD) was listed in 1895 and is the JSE's oldest listed company. It was followed by SA Breweries which was listed in 1897 and has now been acquired by Anheuser Busch. DRD is now a gold surface treatment operation which is at an all-in sustaining cost of extraction of just over R627247 per kilogram which compares to the average received gold price of R917996. They are re-treating surface dumps which still have traces of gold that can be profitably extracted with modern extraction methods. The benefit of this type of operation is that it is far less risky than underground gold mining operations because it has far less union exposure and has none of the expenses or difficulties of an underground operation. Its life and grade, and hence its profitability, are precisely known. The share tends to be volatile because it depends on the current price of gold, but the company has a debt-free balance sheet and strong free cash flows. A deal was concluded for Sibanye to swap out its surface dumps for an additional 265m DRD shares - which took Sibanye to a shareholding of 38%. Then on 10th January 2020, Sibanye announced that it had exercised its option to increase its stake to 50,1% at a cost of R1086m. The CEO of DRD Gold, Niel Pretorius, wants to join up with other tailing projects on the West Rand to create a massive unified re-processing operation. The company is building a 20mw solar and battery facility. In its results for the year to 30th June 2025 the company reported revenue up 26% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 69%. The gold price received was 31% up and operating costs were 8% higher. The company said, "Cash and cash equivalents were 150% higher at R1 306.2 million (FY2024: R521.5 million). This was after accounting for cash applied to capital of R2 254.9 million (FY2024: R2 985.7 million), most of which related to growth capex, as well as dividends paid, lower at R431.0 million (FY2024: R731.7 million). At financial year-end, the company remained debt-free." In an update for the 3 months to 30th September 2025 the company reported gold production up 2% and the average gold price received up 1%. The company said, "Revenue for the quarter remained stable in comparison to the previous quarter, increasing marginally by 2% to R2,254.9 million, mainly as a result of a sustained high gold price of R1,943,398/kg and an increase in gold sold to 1,158kg, increasing by 16kg quarter on quarter." In a trading statement for the six months to 31st December 2025 the company estimated that HEPS would increase by between 93% and 103%. Technically, the share made a high of 2458c on 9th May 2023 and then began a downward trend. It broke up through its long-term downward trendline on 3rd July 2024 at 1673c indicating a new upward trend. That upward trend has accelerated with the rise in the US dollar price of gold to above $5000 per ounce. It remains a volatile commodity share subject to the international gold price.
VKE	VUKILE	2026-02-10	View Vukile (VKE) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) trading on the JSE and the Namibian Stock Exchange. It owns properties directly, shares in other REITs, property in the UK as well as a growing portfolio of properties in Spain. 50% of its assets are in Southern Africa, mainly in retail, 46% in Spain and 4% in the UK. Vukile has a policy of re-investing into its existing properties and has struck a deal with MTN, who have invested R80m to install fibre into 37 of its malls. Vukile has a R595m investment in Fairvest, a R1,3bn investment in Atlantic Leaf (34,9% which it is now in the process of selling) and a R790m investment in Gemgrow Properties, which they are trying to sell. Vukile is probably one of the best REITs on the JSE and its share price has risen steadily over the 15 years, despite various setbacks. The CEO Laurence Rapp says that the company is selling its shareholding in other REITs and its UK assets to focus on portfolios in Southern Africa and Spain. In its results for the year to 31st March 2025 the company reported revenue up 9,4% and net asset value (NAV) of 2239c per share, up 3,9%. The company's loan-to-value (LTV) is 40,95%. The company said the South African portfolio had, "Acquired flagship Bonaire Shopping Centre in Valencia Spain for EUR305 million at a yield of c.7.2% - Post year-end acquired Forum Madeira in Portugal for c.EUR63 million at a yield of c.9.5%. Acquisition of four shopping centres in Portugal for a combined value of c.EUR260 million at a blended yield of c.8.9%." In a pre-close update on 29th September 2025 the company said that in the six months to 30th September 2025 occupancy was 99% and footfall increased by 3%. Like-for-like operating income rose by 8%. In an update on the six months to 30th September 2025 the company reported net operating income (NOI) up 10,1% and trading density up 5,3%. The company said, "The growth momentum was achieved across all major categories and tenants, with the top 10 tenants (53% of GLA) growing by +5.7% and the balance, including SMMEs, increasing by +2.4%." In an update on November and December 2025 trading, the company reported November sales up 2,4% and December up 4,5% in trading density. Vukile shares are trading on a multiple of 15,82 which still looks cheap to us. This share has been a good long-term investment.
PIK	PICKNPAY	2026-02-10	View Pick 'n Pay (PIK) is a retail grocery chain with over 2000 stores, mostly in South Africa, but also in the rest of Africa. The company was started by Raymond Ackerman in 1967 and became the dominant grocery retailer over time, before being displaced by Shoprite/Checkers. Summers has once again resumed the role of CEO, following his stint at Pick n Pay as CEO between 1999 and 2007. In its results for the 26 weeks to 31st August 2025 the company reported turnover up 4,9% and a headline loss of 59,77c compared with a loss of 136,6c in the previous period. The company reported, "Another strong performance from Boxer: Boxer's market leading 13.9% turnover growth (5.3% like-for-like) is testament to its position as South Africa's leading grocery discounter; Group profit recovery: The Group reduced its interim headline loss by 45.3% to R439 million." In a trading statement for the 52 weeks to 1st March 2026, the company estimated that its headline loss would increase by more than 20% compared to the loss of 61,54c in the previous period. Technically, Pick 'n Pay was in a downward trend from 2016 and has lost substantial ground to Shoprite. On the latest results, it appears to be moving into a new volatile downward trend since March 2024. The link up with Mr. D and Takealot should help the company to catch up in the online shopping market. The share remains risky, and, in our opinion, has not yet addressed all the underlying problems of customer shopping experience and staff motivation, but there are a few signs of improvement.

Winning Share: SUR

Opinion: TRL

Datatec (2026-02-09)

Many private investors shy away from IT shares because they can be difficult to understand. Their business models are often highly complex making it problematic to accurately assess their fundamental risk. Datatec is an international IT and telecommunications company with operations in more than 50 countries world-wide which makes it even more challenging as an investment. My response to this type of complexity is to look at the results and the people involved.

In its results for the six months to 31st August 2025 the company reported gross invoiced income up 9,4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 109,5%. Clearly, this company is growing its turnover while at the same time hugely improving its operational efficiency.

Because of its international footprint, Datatec offers the investor a rand-hedge. It is also obviously benefiting from the world-wide move towards artificial intelligence (AI). It makes a gross margin of 26.3% and its operating costs are coming down. By bringing down its net debt the company has reduced its finance costs by 27.1%. From an investor’s perspective this makes buying the shares far less risky. Companies with plenty of “headroom” have the cash to avoid problems and take advantage of opportunities.

Its business is divided into three main divisions - technology distribution through Westcon International, integration and managed services through Logicalis, and consulting and financial services through Datatec Financial Services and Analysys Mason.

Consider the chart:

Datatec (DTC) : April 2023 - 6th of February 2026. Chart by ShareFriend Pro.

The chart shows that Datatec had an extended period of sideways movement between April 2023 and October 2024. Then it began to move up strongly. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) 26th October 2024 at a price of 3950c, when it began showing signs of structural improvement and it has since gone up to 7781 – a gain of 97% in 15 months. We believe it will continue to perform well as AI becomes more ubiquitous.

Jens Montanana is the CEO of Datatec and has been in that position since the company listed on the JSE more than thirty years ago. His drive and energy are what taken the company up to a market capitalisation of R12bn. Montanana says that “...the growth of interconnected digital communities and increased IT complexity drove infrastructure demand in networking and cybersecurity”. Now I will be first to admit that I do not understand the implications of that statement – but I know growth and financial stability when I see it.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has forced businesses to implement the technology within their operations if they are to remain competitive. Datatec is riding that wave.

Obviously, this is a company which is dominated by Montanana and that does make it vulnerable to his inevitable retirement at some stage. However, we believe that Datatec has built a very solid international; presence which will continue to provide it with growth opportunities in the future whoever is in charge.

It is not one of the fastest growing shares on the JSE, but it has been a very steady performer since we added it to the WSL.

Clicks Oversold (2026-01-26)

Technical analysis is the study of investor perceptions as they are reflected in the price and volume patterns of a security. It is also true that shares move in cycles which take them from being overbought to being oversold and back again. This is especially true of the blue chip shares which are heavily traded and patronised by the big institutions (pension funds, unit trusts and insurance companies). The fund managers who manage the institutional portfolios account for about 90% of all trades on the JSE.

In our opinion, Clicks (CLS) is a high-quality share which should be part of every private investor’s portfolio. The problem is that it is generally very popular with the big institutions who are always buying it, which tends to make it very expensive – most of the time. But there are occasions when it goes out of fashion with the fund managers for some reason and at those moments it can represent excellent value and a great buying opportunity. In our opinion, right now is just such a moment.

A few days ago on 22nd January 2026, Clicks published a trading update for the 20 weeks up to 11th January 2026. In that update it said that group turnover was up 7,4% and that pharmacy sales had gained 9%. They also commented that they had record Black Friday sales and robust customer demand for their Christmas gift range.

Consider the diagram below.

Clicks (CSL) : February 2016 - 23rd of January 2026. Chart by ShareFriend Pro.

The top chart in the diagram below shows the share price of Clicks over the last ten years. The lower chart shows the 200-day overbought/oversold (OB/OS) of Clicks over the same period.

On the OB/OS I have drawn in a -10% buy line and you can see that over the ten-year period there have been just 5 occasions (the green arrows) on which the OB/OS has fallen below -10%. Then considering the top chart you can see that, on each of those occasions, Clicks represented an excellent buying opportunity (the red circles).

On Friday last week, the Clicks OB/OS ended the week at –10,64%. And you will observe that historically it generally does not spend a great deal of time below that minus 10% buy line. Inevitably, the fund managers become aware that it is heavily over-sold and begin buying it, driving the price up again.

Of course, the fact that Clicks is heavily oversold right now does not guarantee that it will not fall further and you should always maintain a stop-loss strategy. But, if you are buying, it does give you a good indication of your probability of being right. In my estimation, the share has spent about 2% of its time over the last ten years below that -10% buy line. That means that your statistical probability of being wrong in buying it at that level is therefore extremely low.

And you will have one great satisfaction – you are not buying it at +24% - but somebody did! Otherwise, the chart would not have gone there. It is amazing to consider that, less than 4 months ago on 25th September 2025, there were institutional fund managers buying Clicks at an OB/OS level of over +24% (the red arrow). If you buy now at -10,64%, you are certainly doing a lot better than them!

The Collapse of Choppies (2026-01-19)

The fall in the Choppies share price from 795c on 2nd January 2026 to last Friday’s close at 290c is a great example of the volatility of markets, especially in shares which are relatively thinly traded. It demonstrates the importance of investor sentiment and the potential for popular shares to…

Choppies represents an unusual investment opportunity on the JSE, because it is a supermarket chain which is apparently highly successful in Africa outside of South Africa. This made it unique and a potential take-over prospect on the JSE. Most of the larger grocery retailers like Shoprite and Pick ‘n Pay have made an effort to establish themselves in other African countries with varying degrees of success. Those markets tend to be characterised by high levels of inflation and political instability. Choppies, on the other hand, was demonstrably successful in the rest of Africa, but found the South African market too competitive.

This made the Choppies story unique. We first recognised Choppies potential when it broke up out of an extended period of sideways movement in March last year. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 6th March 2025 at a price of 85c and its performance was nothing short of meteoric. Eventually, by the beginning of 2026 it was trading on a price:earnings ratio (PE) of over 100. Consider the chart:

Choppies (CHP) : September 2024 - 16th of January 2026. Chart by ShareFriend Pro.

The chart shows the extraordinary climb in Choppies share price last year and then its subsequent collapse in 2026.

So, what happened? The answer to this question is that we really do not know. There have been no explanations or even comment given by the company itself in Stock Exchange News Service (SENS). There is some speculation that there was an offer from one of the other South African supermarket giants that was then abandoned, but again the company itself has said nothing.

In our view, the Choppies business proposition gained momentum leading up to the publication of its financials on 22nd September 2025 causing its share price to run up too quickly – accompanied by rising volumes. Investors felt that the company had suddenly caught the attention of institutional investors.

On 8th January 2026, probably a single investor decided to take profits and gave a market order to his broker to sell a million shares “at best”. The investor concerned was almost certainly a beneficiary of the Choppies “Long-term Investment Scheme” (LTI) and a member of the company’s senior management. The trade demonstrated his ignorance of the share market because he dumped a huge amount of shares into a relatively thinly traded market in a single day. A more experienced investor would have dribbled the shares into the market over a number of days thus giving time for the market to adjust. The problem is that 89% of the shares in issue are held by just two investors – which means that the “free float” is relatively small.

So, how should you have handled this situation as a private investor? The answer is to strictly apply your stop-loss strategy. On the day after the share fell (Friday 9th January 2026) you should have sold out your holding on stop-loss. You would have got prices of at least 400c per share. If you bought the shares when we put them on the WSL on 6th March 2025, you would still more than quadrupled your initial investment. The lesson is never ignore your stop-loss.

And what should you do now? Well, when a share falls heavily like this, we always advise applying a 65-day exponential moving average (MA) and then waiting for the price to break up through that MA. There may still be some bad news which has not come out so you don’t want to buy prematurely. Wait for the share to settle down at these lower levels and then buy when it begins to move up again.

Notably, Choppies, at its current price (290c), is now on a P:E of 41 – which is far more attractive than its peak of over 113, but still very fully priced when compared to other grocery retailers on the JSE. Shoprite is on a PE 19.6 of and Spar is at 18,41.

JSE Top 40

112,969.00 (+0.59%)

All Share

120,887.00 (+0.51%)

Financial 15

26,379.00 (+1.19%)

J200

J203

J212

Top Gainers

#	Code	Name	Close (c)	% move
1	RNG	RANGOLD	100	+28.21%
2	OAS	OASIS	2799	+18.85%
3	RTN	REXTRUE-N	1494	+10.67%

Top Losers

#	Code	Name	Close (c)	% move
1	LAB	LABAT	5	-16.67%
2	PWR	POWER	7000	-13.58%
3	SKA	SHUKA	81	-10.00%

PDSNET Market Snapshot