ARTICLES

PDSNET ARTICLES

Human Behaviour

Investing in shares is about predicting the future. When buying a share the buyer is saying that he expects its price to rise, while the seller, by his sale, clearly has the expectation that it will fall. Of course, only one of them can be right and whomever is right will take money away from whomever is wrong. And the outcome depends entirely on the accuracy of their predictions

Windfall!

THE RAND

The current account surplus on the Balance of Payments in the second quarter came in at R343bn – considerably higher than the first quarter’s substantial surplus of R261bn. Obviously, this massive and on-going influx of cash is largely due to the worldwide boom in commodities which is benefiting South Africa despite the

Our Club Portfolio

Last year, on the 14^th December 2020  we wrote an article about our Investment Club software and our in-house company portfolio which we run on that software. As we said in that article, running this portfolio has proved to be a highly motivating exercise for our staff. The diagram below shows where we were on 11^th December 2020

The Confidential Report - September 2021

America

The suggestion by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) that it may begin to reduce its monthly asset buying program from $120bn per month before the end of 2021 sent markets into a new mini-correction. The process of reducing this type of quantitative easing (Q/E) has become known as “tapering” and the Fed’s consideration

US Inflation

The S&P500 has continued to make new record highs one after another. It recently recorded its 200^th straight trading day without a correction of 5% or more. This is not a record, but it shows that the upward trend is becoming more exponential. A few months ago, we drew your attention to the fact that since the low point of COVID-19 in March

Italtile

Following the impact of COVID-19 and the recent civil unrest, the hunt is on for high quality listed shares which have the potential to rise as the South African economy recovers. Obviously, service companies, which do not require significant working capital (i.e., stock levels or debtors’ books), tend to be more highly rated

Reshuffle

The announcement by President Ramaphosa of his cabinet reshuffle has received a mixed response from investors. On the one hand, it is clear that he has moved to consolidate his position within the government which should mean that his reform process should be less impeded than it has been. On the other he appears to have been obliged to lose Finance Minister Tito Mboweni either because Mboweni

The Confidential Report - August 2021

America

Current estimates are that the US economy will grow at the rate of 6,6% overall this year and as much as 8,3% in the third quarter. S&P500 companies continue to produce record-breaking profits. The growth in GDP is truly enormous for such a large economy and will clearly cause the boom in commodity

Distell

Quality of management is a vital indicator for the private investor. High quality management is the best guarantee of future profits and sustainability in any share, especially in the volatile and unpredictable environment of South Africa. COVID-19 and the recent civil unrest have given investors a unique opportunity to evaluate the quality of management

Opportunity Knocks

As a private investor, you need to develop a view on where exactly you think the market is in its cycle – is it expensive and close to the top, cheap and close to the bottom or somewhere in the middle? There can be very little doubt that investors generally move from being optimistic about the future to being pessimistic - and back again