Cryptocurrencies cannot really be considered an investment because they have no fundamentals. Their value is derived exclusively from the belief of the people who invest in them. When belief in Bitcoin is strong the price rises and when it is weak, the price falls.
Bitcoin cannot be regarded as a “safe haven” asset
Most investors would probably agree that there is a considerable amount of uncertainty in equity markets at the moment. From a fundamental perspective, that uncertainty has come about because of:
- The force with which the central banks of the world (especially the US Fed) will “stamp on the brakes” to reduce
In November last year we wrote the following about the U.S. economy in the Confidential Report:
“…what if the Fed is wrong about inflation and it persists at the current high levels or even increases? September was the 5th month where inflation was above 5%. If they are wrong, then they will need to raise interest
Nineteen months ago on 2nd of September 2020 in the Confidential Report, we recommended buying Lewis shares when they were trading for just 1668c. The share has now moved up to 4670c – a gain of 180%. Amazingly, it remains excellent value today despite this substantial rise in its price.
The company has 817 stores with 84%
Most charts of share prices or indexes that you will come across are linear. The date is measured on X-Axis (horizontal) and the price or index level is measured on the Y-Axis (vertical). For short term charts linear scales are fine, but the longer your chart, the more misleading a linear chart becomes, especially for data streams which generally increase over
In recent times there has been a trend for investment holding companies to unbundle their assets into the hands of shareholders, thus releasing substantial value. The shares of investment holding companies traditionally trade at a significant discount to the market value of the assets which they hold, and this provides them with an opportunity to
Throughout history, in times of war or major crisis, investors have always sought a safe haven for their wealth. And that safe haven has inevitably been gold. The various assets available for investment can be arranged in order from the highest return and most risky to the lowest return and least risky. On that scale, gold is on the one extreme –
Investors don’t like uncertainty, but investment is about predicting the future and, of course, that is all about assessing the impact of an array of uncertainties. As an investor you have to use your analysis, experience and understanding to reduce the level of uncertainty to an acceptable place.
Uncertainty is reflected in volatility.
There can be little doubt now that inflation world-wide is gaining momentum. America recorded 7,5% in January 2022 and Europe had inflation of 5,1% in January 2022 which is expected to rise to 5,8% in February. If that happens it will the first time for many decades that I can recall inflation being higher in both Europe and America than it is here in South Africa.
When you buy shares, you are immediately in the business of forecasting the future. You believe that the shares you have bought will go up. If you thought that they were going down, you wouldn’t have bought them. Your prediction that the share will go up can be divided into two primary areas – the prediction that the share market as a whole will rise (systematic)