As far back as January 2016, billionaire George Soros went short on the S&P500 index. This means that he thought the S&P500 was going to fall heavily and he took positions which would profit from a major fall in that index. Later in May 2017 he doubled up on those “short” positions and he has been taking more short positions ever since. As recently as final quarter of 2020 he bought
Truworths (TRU) is a retailer of fashionware in South Africa and the UK. As such its business has been damaged by the impact of Brexit in the UK and the recessionary conditions in the South African economy. Both countries have then been impacted by lockdowns which prevented in-store sales for a period of time, beginning in late March 2020. The second wave of the pandemic has also been a factor. In the UK,
At the start of 2021, it is as well to stand back and consider the context of where world markets are as they slavishly follow Wall Street up to new record highs. Consider the 12-year chart of the S&P500:
The chart shows that the great bull market which began in March 2009 is on-going. It is moving within a clearly defined channel.
We all know that our market, the JSE, is dominated by the big institutions – the pension funds, unit trusts, insurance companies and a scattering of large fund managers. These institutions together account for at least 90% of the trades on the JSE by value. We private investors make up the rest.
Big institutions have huge holdings of mostly blue-chip or
For some years now we have believed that the rand was underpriced in relation to the currencies of first world countries, especially the US dollar. We have also said that the rand, as one of the most heavily traded emerging market currencies, is a barometer of the international investment community’s perception of risk in the world economy. When investors
A few years ago, we developed software to manage an in-house investment club for our staff members. We now offer it to any member of the public who wants to set up an investment club, free of charge. Using the daily closing prices from the JSE, this software is designed to keep track of the investments of a group of people who have decided to work together on investing directly
We have come to the end of a tumultuous and unique year marked by the “black swan” event of COVID-19, various Trump excesses and, finally, his vanquishing. The long-term progress of the S&P500 as outlined in “our Background Approach” on our web site remains in tact. In that scenario, the world economy is moving into a strong boom phase stimulated by unprecedented
Property shares on the JSE have had a torrid time over the last few years. It began with the melt-down which resulted from the Resilient crisis, now substantially behind us, and continued with the eventual failure of the Edcon Group and the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown. These events have combined with a generally negative economy to reduce the value of property shares significantly.
Now that the uncertainty of the US election is essentially over, it is perhaps a good time to step back and consider where we are and what is likely to happen next.
The S&P500 index, which is an excellent benchmark for trends in the international markets, appears to be breaking to a new record high – above the resistance at 3580. Consider the chart: