The Relationship between Fundamental and Technical Analysis
There are generally two approaches to share assessment – fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentalist is trying to answer the question, “How good will the company be as a generator of dividends in the future?” while the technician is looking for patterns in the share’s price and volume charts to improve his predictions of where the share
Oil
The Oil market is usually an excellent barometer of the state of the world economy. When there is growth, people buy more cars and drive more, more products are consumed which means they have to be transported to retail outlets – usually by an internal combustion engine of some sort.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused the oil price (North Sea Brent) to collapse to prices below $20 a barrel
Alviva
There is plenty of value for private investors on the JSE at the moment. The big institutions are focusing on the large blue-chip shares and ignoring the smaller companies, but some of those smaller companies offer really good opportunities. We think that Alviva (AVV) is worthy of your consideration.
Alviva describes itself as,
Two interesting shares.
Warren Buffett has famously been quoted as saying “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when other are fearful”. Right now, investors are understandably fearful and for that reason there are some unusual opportunities in the market. The shares which would obviously benefit in the post-COVID-19 period have already moved – shares like Prosus and Sibanye. In fact, mining
The Confidential Report - September 2020
America
The new approach to monetary policy, announced by Jerome Powell (Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank) on 27th August 2020, has been interpreted by the market as substantially more dovish, with the immediate result that the S&P500 broke up to new record highs – well above the previous high of 3386 made on 19th February 2020, before the advent
Shoprite Buy Signal
For many decades the grocery retail sector in South Africa has been dominated by two major players – Pick ‘n Pay and Shoprite. During much of that time, Raymond Ackerman dominated the market and Shoprite/Checkers played second fiddle under former CEO, Whitey Basson. Following Ackerman’s retirement, Pick ‘n Pay went into a slump and Basson was able to steer Shoprite into a position of dominance by
City Lodge Rights Issue
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit few listed companies on the JSE as badly as City Lodge. Business and holiday travel has slowed to a crawl and occupancy in the second half of March 2020 fell to a dismal 16,7%. KPMG, the City Lodge auditors, drew attention to the fact that in the 9 months to 31st March 2020 the company lost R316 000 which left it in a position where its liabilities
Gold shares up 225%
On 24th June 2019 we published an article under the heading “New Gold Bull” in which we drew your attention to the fact that the US dollar price of gold had broken up convincingly above resistance at around $1340. Below is the chart which we included with that article.
The Confidential Report - August 2020
US Economy
A picture is beginning to emerge of the performance of the US economy as the pandemic progresses. The second quarter’s statistics point to a very sharp contraction, as was to be expected, but the second quarter was probably the worst quarter. The US economy’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 9,5% in the quarter – which was expected given the widespread
Silver on the move?
One of our clients, Mr. Koot Jordaan, drew our attention to the fact that the rand price of silver, which has been underperforming gold since 2011, may be making an upside breakout.
Mr. Jordaan suggested that silver in both rands and US dollars had been moving in an extended sideways pattern. Consider the charts:
Silver in US dollars