Bubble
Last Friday the S&P500 reached another new all-time record high, closing at 6791 and reaching a new intra-day record high of 6807. This is obviously an exciting time for private investors, but with each new record high the systematic risk of a bear trend or crash increases. Consider the chart:
The PEG Ratio
Since the government of national unity (GNU) came into power in June 2024, there has been a definite improvement in the South African economy. Perhaps the improvement is not as dramatic as some people were expecting, but the progress cannot be denied.
Possibly the best indicator of that is the 28% rise in the JSE Banking index which, before the GNU had
Rare Earth Elements
Investors worldwide had been of the opinion that Trump’s ability to impact markets was on the decline. His erratic, on-again, off again tariff policies had either disappeared or had been mostly discounted into share prices. His attack on the second largest economy in the world, China, seemed to have been largely resolved, and a meeting with
US Shutdown
There has been much in the media recently about the US government shutdown and the fear among investors that it might begin to affect the stock market, depending on how long it lasts.
A shutdown occurs when the US government reaches its budget limit and requires a bill to be passed through both Houses to extend the government’s spending limits.
New Listings
Two new companies, ASP Isotopes and Greencoat Renewables, have recently come to the JSE. Both are developing companies that have recently made losses and have been funding those losses by raising capital and selling assets. They both have substantial “blue sky” potential but also carry substantial investment risk. This is probably truer of ASP
Exponential Growth
The S&P 500 index is important because all the stock markets around the world tend to follow it. If the S&P is in a bull trend then London, Tokyo and the JSE will also be in a bull trend – and vice versa.
The S&P500 index began 68 years ago on 4 th March 1957 with an initial value of 43,73. It took nearly
The US Jobs Market
International investors who trade on Wall Street are generally negative about any good news from the economy because it tends to make the monetary policy committee (MPC) more hawkish and less likely to reduce interest rates. The opposite is also true. But there comes a point where bad news is so bad that investors begin to fear that the US economy is heading
Jackson Hole
Once a year in late August central bankers and academics congregate in Jackson Hole to discuss the state of the economy and consider the way forward. Traditionally, the Chair of the Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”) addresses the meeting and gives direction to its thinking on monetary policy in the US. This year, the comments of Jerome Powell resulted in the
Choppies
Choppies is a supermarket chain which operates in Botswana, Namibia and Zambia. It is listed both on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and on the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE). Notably, the company has resisted the temptation to re-enter the highly competitive and cut-throat retail market in South Africa, having exited that market in 2020 due to sustained losses. Despite
Gold Resistance
All investments throughout the world can be ranked on a scale from high risk to low risk. As a general rule, in the world of investment, risk and return rise together. In other words, as the risks in an investment increase, so does the return necessary to attract investors.
At the one end of the scale there are very low risk investments