The Confidential Report - December 2025
3 December 2025 By PDSNETAmerica
At the time of last month's Confidential Report on the 29th of October 2025, the S&P500 index was at an all-time record high of 6890. We had already warned of the possibility of a correction in our article “Bubble” published the week before on the 27th of October. Over the following month that correction has played out with Wall Street falling 5% and the S&P making a cycle low of 6538 on 20th November 2025. The correction was about double the size of the other mini-corrections (marked 1-4 on the chart) that we have experienced over the last 6 months. After displaying some nervousness, the bulls came roaring back last week furiously “buying the dip” and they drove the S&P back up to 6849 on Friday. Consider the chart:
The cycle low marking the 5th mini-correction on 10th October held and the buying began. It is normal for the stock market to experience a Christmas rally in late November and December after Black Friday on the 28th of November 2025, so we are now expecting a series of new all-time record highs.
There is an old saying in the investment world that, "When America sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold." Right now, the US economy is doing relatively well maintained by consumer spending which accounts for as much as 70% of gross domestic product (GDP). However, that spending is dependent on the top 10% of earners who have an incomes of $250 000 per annum or more. This group now accounts for about half of total consumer spending in America. On average the top 20% of households have a share market portfolio worth $1,6m according to the Bank of America. This means that the 30% increase in the S&P500 index since its low on the 8th of April this year has had a disproportionate impact on spending levels. At the same time, there are now 7,4m people out of work in America and the economy is showing definite signs of slowing down. There is a clear link between spending levels and the level of the S&P500. A sharp correction in the S&P could easily lead to a drop in consumer spending resulting in a further drop in the S&P. This type of self-fulfilling downward spiral is a definite systematic risk in the market.
The government 42-day shut down was a record but was brought to an end by the few Democrats who caved in to the Republicans and voted with them to resume government functions. The airlines were warning that there would be a flood of flight cancellations and delays over the Christmas season, if the 13000 air traffic controllers and 50000 Transport Security workers are not paid. At least 3,2m travellers were affected. 10% or more of flights were in danger of being cut if the shutdown persisted. That threatened the holiday plans of millions of Americans and further eroded Trump’s support.
The third quarter earnings season is virtually over now with 475 of the 500 companies in the S&P having reported. 83% of the companies reported earnings which were above expectations and overall average earnings over the year were up 14,6% - more than doubling forecasts of 7,2%. The rising stock market is still being driven by the chip-makers.
The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, said the following after his company posted excellent 4th quarter projections. "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once."
In the 3rd quarter, Nvidia had earnings per share (EPS) of $1.30 on revenue of $57.01 billion. Analysts were predicting EPS of $1.26 on revenue of $55.2 billion.
Walmart raised its projections for the full year after a strong third quarter which saw both sales and profits well above expectations. The share price jumped 7% on the day of the announcement.
The non-farm jobs report showed that the US economy created 119 000 new jobs in September 2025 – more than double what economists were expecting. At the same time the unemployment rate rose to 4,4%, up 0,1% from August’s figure. The minutes of the Fed’s monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting show that committee members are divided over whether the slowing economy or the stubborn persistence of core inflation require remedying. At the moment expectations of a further interest rate cut after the MPC meeting in December have risen from 30% to 80%
The recent elections in New York, Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere show a strong swing towards the Democrats and a rejection of the Trump policies implemented since he took office in January. They are also an indication of where the mid-term elections could be headed. Clearly, the sentiment which took Trump into office for this second term has run out of steam and a move back towards the Democrats is mounting. This is especially true among independents where Trump has lost significant support. The Republicans in America currently have majorities in both the House and the Senate, but that is likely to change in the mid-term elections in November 2026. At that election all the seats in the House are to be contested while 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be voted on. Following its recent successes in regional elections, the Democrats look set to win a majority in both houses, leaving Trump as a “lame duck” president for the last two years of his term. The cost of living in America seems to be the top issue for most voters. It is apparent that immigration is no longer a major issue while democratic values and norms seems to be important. The polls show that 58% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance since he came into office.
Bitcoin
The collapse of the Bitcoin price shows just how sensitive crypto-currencies are to investor sentiment. During October and the first half of November, Bitcoin fell from a high of $125265 on the 6th of October 2025, to a low of $83268 on the 21st of November. The shift to risk-off among international investors during this period hammered Bitcoin down 33%. Now that the bulls are busy “buying the dip” on Wall Street, Bitcoin has recovered nearly 10% from its low, but it is still not “out of the woods” - consider the chart:
Note the broadening formation which began in July and persisted until it was broken on the downside in the middle of November. Broadening formations like this indicate increasing uncertainty in the market and once broken usually show the direction of the future trend.
It is interesting that the Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman suggests that the decline in the Bitcoin price is a direct reflection of Trump’s declining political influence. He argues that the rise of Bitcoin to $125 000 was a direct function of Trump’s rise to power and that right now the “Trump trade is unravelling”. He suggests that the Bitcoin price is a good barometer of Trump’s political fortunes. We are inclined to agree with Professor Krugman. The massive 33% fall in Bitcoin since October 2025 cannot otherwise be adequately or easily explained by market forces.
Ukraine
Trump’s so-called peace plan for the Ukraine war has failed because in his negotiations he did not include the Ukrainians or the Europeans. His plan only catered to Russian requirements and part of that was that Ukraine be required to give up territory. Europe has already rejected the idea, because the plan is completely one-sided. Russia is in a desperate situation both militarily and economically. Although they have been making incremental gains, especially around the city of Pokrovsk in recent weeks, this has been achieved at enormous cost in both lives and material. Ukraine, with the backing of the EU and to a lesser extent the US has been accelerating its use of long-range drones to destroy the Russian oil industry and other infrastructure. At the same time, the low price of oil combined with the tightened sanctions is impacting Russian oil revenues. There is also evidence that Putin’s popularity in Russia is declining steadily as more and more families have to deal with dead or wounded loved ones.
Russia’s defence ministry has announced that its troops have entered Pokrovsk and are fighting house-to-house with Ukrainian forces. Pokrovsk is regarded as a key strategic city and the gateway to the Donetsk province. Ukraine still controls about 10% of the Donbas. Russian forces claim that they are just a few kilometres away from closing their pincer movement and cutting off the Ukrainian troops fighting in Pokrovsk. The fall of Pokrovsk could lead to the fall of other cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Altogether Russia now claims to control 19% of Ukraine.
Russia’s revenue from oil and gas dropped by 27% year-over-year in October 2025. The price of Urals Crude oil dropped to $36.60 in October 2025 – a $23.50 discount to Brent. And Brent oil itself is in a downward trend that has it close to the support level at $60 per barrel. Consider the chart:
The steep downward trend in Brent has been apparent since July this year. We believe that much of that is due to the shift towards alternative power sources and especially solar.
Apparently, the Russian Reserve Bank is now selling gold from its reserves to help finance the war. Originally, before it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s national wealth fund (NWF) held as much as 405,7 tons of gold. After almost 4 years of war it is now estimated that it has sold 232 tons of that and that only 173 tons remain. The NWF is now fallen to about 1,9% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 7,3% before the war began. It is clear that the Russian economy is taking enormous strain – which may account for Trump’s sudden renewed interest in negotiating a peace plan. The Ukrainians have been gearing up to increase the intensity and effectiveness of their drone attacks on Russian assets – and those efforts are finally coming to fruition. Russia is an enormous country whose oil and energy infrastructure is dispersed over thousands of kilometres of territory – which is almost impossible to defend against drones and missiles. Our view is that this war cannot continue for much longer. Russia simply cannot afford it – and so Putin appears to have arranged for Trump to put pressure on Ukraine to capitulate – something which we think is highly unlikely.
Economy
The Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana delivered the medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday 12th November 2025. In the announcement he confirmed the new inflation target of 3% which the governor of the Reserve Bank proposed a few weeks ago. The new target is between 2% and 4%, a considerable change from the previous 3% to 6% target. The rand reached its strongest level against the US dollar since January 2023. The budget deficit is now expected to fall to 2,9% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the 2028/29 fiscal year. The interest cost of the budget deficit remains high at 21c out of every rand of tax collected, but it is expected to decline in coming years. The growth forecast was reduced to 1,2%, but rising to 1,5% next year and reaching 2% in 2028. Tax collections were almost R20bn higher than the budget because of better company profits and VAT collections. There is now a strong possibility that the international ratings agencies will improve South Africa’s ratings leading to more investment and lower interest rates. SARS has now set a new target for collections at R2 trillion. VAT collections are up 7,8% due to higher consumer spending. Spending on social protection, including grants, is R318,9 bn, and the broader social wage (education, health, housing and grants) makes up about 60% of non-interest expenditure. The social relief of distress grant (SRD) for adults between 18 and 59 has been extended again, now running until March 2027.
The decision by the Treasury to support the Reserve Bank’s lowering of the inflation target to between 2% and 4% is controversial. This is because squeezing the inflation out of the economy comes at a short- and medium-term cost. It is only in the longer term that the increased discipline of saving more and spending less will benefit the economy and begin to be visible in higher capital creation and lower debt levels. Some economists are now complaining that the medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) envisages this slowing down of spending, especially on the part of the government – and that that will have the effect of reducing consumer spending and job creation. Our view is that the increased discipline is a very good thing and the pain caused by reduced spending will be short-lived. Once the nation’s debt levels come down, spending will pick up again while pay-day loans and the use of high interest unsecured lending to pay for monthly expenses like the purchase of food will diminish. This can only be healthy.
As expected, the monetary policy committee (MPC) cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points, taking the repo rate down to 6,75%. This is the 4th cut this year making a total of 100 basis points. The Reserve Bank’s forecast of growth for this year was increased slightly to 1,3% and the bank indicated that it expected growth to accelerate towards 2%. Inflation is expected to be 3,3% this year and to increase to 3,5% next year with the bank on track to reach and stabilise at 3% in due course. The rand has strengthened about 9% against the US dollar so far in 2025, but has slipped about 2% against the Euro. In its estimates, the Bank is assuming that Eskom will begin to recover the R54bn it lost because of a calculating error by the National Energy Regulator and that the price of electricity will rise as a result.
The consumer price inflation rate (CPI) increased by 3,6% in year to the end of October 2025 – which is the highest level that it has been in the last twelve months, and up from September’s 3,4%. The figure remains inside the new target range of 2% to 4% and core inflation fell to 3,1% from September’s 3,2%. So far, the monetary policy committee has reduced interest rates four times this year, each time by 25 basis points, in January, May and July and now again in November. The effect has been to gradually increase the level of real consumer income and spending. The rate-cutting trend is now well on its way and should continue into the new year.
The producer price index (PPI) increased by 2,9% in the year to the end of October 2025 but fell 0,1% in the month itself. This marks the seventh month that the PPI has increased since August last year. Lower fuel prices brought the monthly figure down while food, beverages and tobacco went up by 3,1% over the year. Meat prices rose by 17,4%, but sugar went down by 11,8%. Grain prices continue to fall mainly as a result of the good rains and excellent growing season. The maize crop is now estimated to reach 16,4m tons. The PPI tends to impact on the consumer price index (CPI) over time, but the relationship is not direct. We expect inflation to tick up slightly in the coming months and then continue to fall.
The international ratings agency Standard & Poors (S&P) has just given its estimate of GDP growth in South Africa 2026 as 1,5%. S&P draws attention to our many structural problems such as the high cost of electricity and the difficulties with our rail and port system. Their assessment obviously makes life difficult for President Ramaphosa and puts pressure on the ANC to improve their performance. However, in our view, the South African economy is improving steadily under the government of national unity (GNU) and growth is now on an upward trajectory. One of the ANC’s great achievements has been to bring inflation right down so that real wages are now increasing. That process has obviously reduced growth levels but will have a very positive impact on future growth.
Moodys, the international ratings agency has kept South Africa at its rating of Ba2 – which is two steps below investment grade. The company says 80% of revenue overperformance is allocated to additional net spending which leaves the fiscal deficit at 4,5% of gross domestic product (GDP) despite a better primary balance. The government is depending on the growth rate reaching 2% by 2028 in order to reduce the deficit – which depends on logistics reforms and improvements in electricity management. Moodys is positive about the reduction of the inflation rate target to 3% and can see long-term benefits from the move. Moodys says the medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) showed progress, but they remain cautious.
Sim Tshabalala’s effort to bring South Africa back to an investment grade rating by the major international ratings agencies is laudable. He makes very good points, that following the mid-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) the country is on the road to lower government debt and economic reform. Tshabalala points to the fact that SA now expects the budget deficit to come in under 80% of GDP over the next three years compared to almost 85% when our ratings downgrade occurred. He points out that the debt is also mainly rand-denominated and supported by a liquid local debt market. Other positives include the end of loadshedding, the opening of Transnet to private operators and the low level of inflation. If our rating is returned to investment grade it will significantly reduce the cost of servicing the debt and open the door for further foreign direct investment (FDI).
Trump removed his 30% tariffs from most South African agricultural products going into the US. Grapes and wines are still subject to tariffs. This is a significant boost to the citrus industry which has doubled its exports to the US in the last year. The lifting of the tariffs is typical of the Trump administration which regularly backs down on the tariffs announced by Trump – to the point where the markets have virtually stopped responding to his erratic announcements.
The Business Day reports that the JSE Top 40 has surged 55% in the year to date in dollar terms. It has also out-performed the MSCI emerging markets index by 30% and first-world countries by 20%. Foreign investors have been putting their cash into South Africa because of improved prospects with almost R130bn flowing into our bond market. The market capitalisation of the JSE has risen by more than R5 trillion. Household income is rising, and business credit extension is improving. Investors anticipate that the international ratings agencies will upgrade the country back towards investment grade. Standard & Poors has become the first agency to make a move in this direction, taking our long-term currency rating to BB up from BB minus. In our view, much of the improvement comes from the advent of the government of national unity (GNU) which has seen the ANC’s idealism tempered by the DA practical approach to service delivery.
Mining production increased by 1,2% in the year to 30th September 2025 following a 5,1% increase in July. Platinum group metals (PGM) sales jumped nearly 54% and gold sales were up 60%. Total mineral sales increased by 16,6%. Manganese was up nearly 7%. The platinum price has now risen by 36% in the 2nd quarter and should improve further. The results coming out of platinum producers like Implats, Northern and Sibanye have all improved. The mining sector is contributing positively to GDP growth.
Factory output increased by 0,3% in the year to end-September 2025, recovering from August’s 1,5% slump and July’s 1,3% decline. The increase is seen as being attributable to the decline in interest rates, the end of loadshedding and the increase in real incomes as a result of the low inflation rate. Food and beverages as well as the furniture sector showed the best performances. In our view, the manufacturing sector is at the whip-end of the economy and is very sensitive to consumer spending and credit extension. We believe that the economy is improving steadily, but that consumers are still paying down debt and building savings because of the relatively high level of real interest rates.
There were almost 56000 new cars sold in the 10 months to the end-October 2025 – which is 16% up on the previous year. The stronger rand and lower inflation have combined to make fuel prices much cheaper. Consumer confidence is improving as a result of rising real wages. At the same time there has been a flood of imported vehicles like Chery, Suzuki and Hyundai which are more affordable than traditional brands. Commercial vehicles, including bakkies and mini-buses, were the best performers with sales up nearly 24% from October 2024. Car sales rose by 14,8% compared to October 2024. In our view, the South African economy is responding positively to the persistently low levels of inflation for the past two years.
The ABSA purchasing managers Index (PMI) fell back into negative territory in October 2025. The fall to 49,2 shows a slight contraction and is indicative of low domestic and export demand. Exports continue to be restricted by the latest US tariffs and local demand remains under pressure as consumers repay debt rather than spending. Another negative for exports was the strength of the rand which made our exports more expensive on overseas markets. New sales orders fell 3,9 points to 48,9 and the inventory index was unchanged. The business sentiment index fell to 46,1, the lowest level in six months, showing a loss of confidence.
La Nina weather conditions have come back this year with cooler, wetter conditions in South Africa which is very good for agricultural production. Better rainfall probably means that we can look forward to a better maize crop than last year’s 20 million tons – which was itself already a 28% increase on the year before. The South African economy is dependent on the ability of millions of subsistence farmers being able to grow a few acres of maize to feed their families. In bad years, these people are dependent on charities and government subsidies.
Walmart’s decision to begin opening stores in South Africa comes at a time when retailing in the country is at its most competitive. Shoprite is planning to open a further 300 stores this year while Spar has plans to open 40 more high end stores. Altogether, a recent ABSA report shows that there are now 1960 shopping malls in South Africa occupying about 23,4 million square meters of retail space. Trading densities are well below those of first world countries. In our view, Walmart is going to struggle to carve out a significant niche for itself, especially given its rather pathetic performance with Massmart and Game.
The so-called informal sector in South Africa has become a major topic of discussion. Ever since the previous CEO of Capitec, Gerrie Fourie, suggested that it was much larger than the official estimates in the unemployment statistics. Most recently it has been estimated that about 4 million people are employed in the sector, with about 1,3m of them being women. The sector is thought to be worth around R900bn per annum. The latest unemployment statistics for the third quarter of 2025 indicate that the country has an unemployment rate of 31,9% with about 17m people employed and almost 25% of them are in the informal sector. A Standard Bank survey found that 4 out of 5 informal sector businesses are unregistered. In our opinion, the informal sector is important because:
- The informal sector employs millions of people and supports millions more, and
- The informal sector is the crucible of business formation in this country where individuals learn the basics of establishing a business.
Most of the business is done in cash and many of the business owners do not have bank accounts. As and when they become sufficiently large to have a bank account, they bring themselves within the range of SARS and can be brought into the formal sector, but until then they should be left to continue what they are doing provided it is legal – which, of course, may not always be the case.
The National Union of Metal workers of SA (NUMSA) and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) initial demands for a 15% increase in their wages at Eskom is clearly out of touch with reality and smacks of idealistic extremism. Eskom is a loss-making utility, despite its constant above inflation price increases and continuous government bailouts. It desperately needs to cut its coat according to its cloth, if it is to survive the rapid shift to alternative energy sources. This unrealistic wage demand shows that unions are ignoring economic constraints. It is extraordinary that Eskom’s 40 000 employees have an average annual salary of over R1m – and they are now demanding a further pay increase of 15%. Clearly, these people are being heavily over-paid and the effect of that is to push the cost of electricity up for consumers and businesses. Led by the National Union of Metalworkers (NUMSA) and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) these wage demands are close to six times the current inflation rate. The rising cost of electricity has already resulted in the demise of certain key industries in this country and has forced consumers and businesses to move to renewable energy.
Online gambling in South Africa is growing rapidly and diverting consumer spending away from traditional casinos and even from retail spend. Until 2020, gambling was mainly done in casinos, but the pandemic accelerated the move towards online gaming and today it accounts for 70% of all gaming. Four companies dominate this space – Hollywood Bets, Playa Bets, Betway and Easybet. Gambling revenue reached R75bn in the 2024/25 year – up 26% from the previous year. The CEO of Vodacom has said that the impact on spending patterns is notable. Obviously, the activity of gambling does not create anything positive for the economy. It simply redistributes wealth from one person to another with the casinos and sports betting houses taking a small percentage. But it does impact the poorest people in the country with many now spending their social grants on gambling.
The World Bank is now predicting that the platinum price will rise by 29% before the end of 2025. Part of the reason for platinum’s expected rise is the increase in the price of gold which has made that metal less affordable for jewellery. The platinum price rose by 36% in the second quarter of 2025 and 70% over the year to date. It reached an intraday record high of $1731 per ounce on 16th October 2025, but has since fallen back to $1666. Platinum supply continues to fall well behind demand. Consider the chart:
The chart shows the long-term downward trend in the platinum price which came to an abrupt end in May 2025. We expect it to continue performing well. Palladium and other platinum group metals (PGM) have also seen significant price increases.
The Rand
Last month, on 5th November 2025, the date of the previous Confidential Report, the rand had weakened back to the support level at R17.50 to the US dollar. That level, which was previously a resistance level has now become a support level. Over the month, our currency has strengthened back to a new intraday cyclical low of R16.93 on the 13th of November 2025. The rand then weakened back towards the support level before finding new strength in the last week. Consider the chart:
The chart clearly shows how the resistance at R17.50 has become a support level. It also shows that the rand is on a strengthening path. In our view, it is unlikely to again weaken to test R17.50 again, but should continue to strengthen to below R17 to the US$. The continued strength is partly a function of the weakness of the US dollar this year, but it also reflects the steadily improving economic conditions at home. We expect the rand to move firmly below R17 in the coming months.
Companies
CELL-C (CCD)
The listing of Cell-C on 27th November 2025 was estimated to create a company with a market capitalisation of 9bn at a final offer price in its book build of R26.50 per share. On the first day the share gained a little to close at 2750c and reached a market capitalisation of R9,35bn. In our view, the share may well sell off somewhat in the coming weeks as the stags get out, but in time it will become another blue-chip telecommunications company similar to Vodacom and MTN – just smaller. The company placed 102m shares to at a price of R26.50 to raise R2,7bn.
GREENCOAT (GRP)
Since it was listed on 10th June 2025, this share has been falling – dropping from a high of 1855c per share on its first day to current levels around 1387c. It is normal for newly listed shares to experience a period of stagging during which some of the people who received their shares as part of a pre-listing private issue decide to sell out. But in a quality share which is in demand, especially by institutional buyers, that period of stagging is fairly short because their shares get snapped up by professional investors of one sort or another. In the case of GRP the falling share price has been accompanied by falling volumes, especially in November where the average volume traded each day has dropped below 10 000 shares per day from its peak of around 52 000 shares in early October. This shows a lack of institutional interest and persistent selling – which is not a good sign. So far, the company’s market capitalisation has fallen by about one quarter in five months.
OCTODEC (OCT)
Property shares are really beginning to perform well on the JSE. One of the best is Octodec which we added to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 21st August 2025 at a price of 1100c. It closed on Friday last week at 1475c – a gain of 34% in just over 3 months. Consider the chart:
In its results for the year to 31st August 2025 the company reported distributable income per share of 171,5c – up from 158,5c. Revenue was up 4,6% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) rose by 15,2%. The company owns inner city properties in Johannesburg and Pretoria as well as Killarney Mall and Woodmead Value Mart. It represents good value, especially now that its loan-to-value (LTV) is improving.
SASOL (SOL)
The Sasol share price is a very good example of the use of trendlines. From its peak on 6th June 2022 at R430, the share has been falling. The downward trend was well clarified by a downward trend line through its cycle high and touch point on 13th October 2023. These two points defined the trendline and the upside break came on 20th May 2025 at a price of 7950c. Consider the chart:
The share bottomed at just below R60 in April, but our advice was always to wait for the upward trend to become more established – and that is best achieved by waiting for a convincing break through the downward trendline. Sasol has benefited from an out-of-court settlement in terms of which it collected nearly R5bn and it has also sharply reduced its budget for cutting greenhouse gases. In the year to 30th June 2025 the company increased headline earnings per share (HEPS) by 93%. The company is focused on a strong growth plan which is starting to pay off. We believe that it still has upside potential, but investor should be aware that it remains a commodity share and hence risky.
ANGLOVAAL INDUSTRIES (A-V-I)
Anglovaal Industries produces and markets a range of food, cosmetic and clothing products with well-known brand names like Provita, Yardley, Spitz and I&J fish. This makes it very sensitive to the level of consumer demand in the economy and the strength of Festive Season sales. The Chairman commented on the 4 months of trading ending on 31st October 2025 saying, “I&J fishing delivered a stronger performance with improved catch rates, incremental benefits from the new freezer vessel, lower fuel prices, a favourable product mix and sound demand from international markets.” In our view, this is a well-managed blue-chip company which was moving sideways until June 2024 and then began to climb. Consider the chart:
Obviously, a share like this is never going to be a dramatic performer, but it will be a good reflection of the South African economy and the level of consumer spending. The risk is relatively low, but the company pays a dividend yield of 4,83% which is a good return.
PREMIER (PMR)
This company is a producer of food products that was unbundled from Brait and listed on 24th March 2023. For a long time after its listing the share was range-bound edging up. And then from the middle of June 2024, the market began to recognise its value. We added it to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 21st August 2024 at a price of 7635c and since then it has risen to 16657c – a gain of 118% in about 15 months. Consider the chart:
In its results for the six months to 30th September 2025 the company reported revenue up 6,4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 27,9%. We see this as a high-quality company that is growing strongly. We expect the upward trend to continue.
GROWTHPOINT (GRT)
The largest real estate investment trust (REIT) on the JSE with a market capitalisation of R60bn, this company owns a diverse range of properties and a 63,7% stake in Growthpoint Australia, which is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). In an update for the 3 months to 30th September 2025 the company reported a vacancy rate of 4,6% and footfalls up 3%. The company has a low loan-to-value (LTV) and a renewal rate of 87,6%. Like most REITs, Growthpoint suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic, but has been recovering well, especially in the last six months. Consider the chart:
As can see, we added Growthpoint to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 31st May 2025 at a price of 1349c. It has since risen to 1750c – a gain of 58% in just over 6 months. We expect it to continue performing steadily in the coming months as the South Africa economy recovers.
ATTACQ (ATT)
This is a real estate investment trust (REIT) with level 1 BEE status. It owns the Mall of Africa and it is the developer of Waterfall City. In a pre-close conference on 25th November 2025, the company reported occupancy at 92,6% and a cost-to-income ratio of 24,5%. Collections are at 100,3% and the revenue generated from roof-top solar power has reached R10,2m. Consider the chart:
As you can see, we originally added Attacq to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 25th January 2024 at a price of 964c after it broke convincingly out of a protracted sideways movement. Since then it has been moving up steadily in a new upward trend. That upward trend began accelerating in October 2025, and the share has reached a new high of 1648c on 21st November 2025. This is a gain of 68,4% in just under two years. We expect it continue to perform steadily as investors begin to appreciate its potential.
FORTRESS (FFB)
Fortress (FFB) is another real estate investment trust (REIT) that has begun to perform really well in the last year. It owns about R30bn worth of properties in office, logistics and retail. It also owns a 15,2% stake in Nepi Rockcastle (NRP) which is worth about R15,8bn at NRP’s current market capitalisation of R104,4bn. Like all REITs trading on the JSE, Fortress has begun to enjoy a period of renewed institutional interest and the share price has been rising rapidly. Consider the chart:
We added FFB to the Winning Shares List (WSL) on 19th June 2024 at a price of 1664c. It has since risen to 2576c – a gain of 54,8% in under 17 months. We expect it to continue to perform well as the South African economy continues to recover.
Management and Staff of PDSnet wish you and your family all best over the holiday season and a prosperous 2026.
Please note: The next webinar will be on the 4th of February 2026.
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