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Definition

A statistical technique for adjusting particularly demand data for annual trend deviations. Seasonal adjustments can be necessitated by climate changes such as the shift from winter to summer and back again, or cultural events like the festive season over December. Thus, for example, retailers typically do a larger percentage of their annual trade over the festive season. A seasonal adjustment would seek to aim off for that to make the festive season months more comparable with the other months of the year and also to highlight trends which are independent of the seasons. Another example is the surge in employment or the purchase of educational products at the start of the calendar year. More people start a new job or begin an educational course in January than in the last quarter of the year. A seasonal adjustment would smooth these known factors out so that a general uptrend or downtrend can be seen.

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