In last week’s article, 12-Year Bull Trend, we pointed out that the bull trend was rising exponentially and ultimately that could only end with an exponential collapse. We said that the exact timing of that collapse was very difficult to assess.
You may also recall our article of 23rd January
On 6th March 2009, just over 12 years ago, the S&P500 index made an intra-day cycle low at 666.79. It was the end of a 17-month bear trend which had seen the S&P fall by 57,4%. The world was in the teeth of the sub-prime crisis and negativity abounded. Investors were terrified. The response to the crisis was massive and world-wide.
The S&P500 index closed above 4000 for the first time on Thursday 1st April 2021 at 4019.
You can see the impact of the COVID-19 V-bottom, which we regard as an extraneous non-economic factor, and the subsequent acceleration of the S&P. Obviously, the